November 12 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), produced by the influential think tank LEAP/Europe 2020, predicts that the US Government will default on its debt anytime before next summer. The analysis presented in their recent issue here suggests that the default will occur due to the following five factors:

“• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets

• Thanks to its recent «political baptism», the Euro becomes a credible «safe haven» value and therefore provides a «crisis» alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country’s defaulting

• «Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009?», that is the only question.”

The outline presented in the GEAB generally corresponds to what we have been saying for a while with regard to the future of the US (and all the implications for those countries tied to it). The ‘global financial meltdown’ that is unfolding now is far from reaching its climax, one reason being the impending derivatives bubble that must burst and destroy the false economy based on speculation in order to start re-building the global economy. Those who expect any ‘meaningful results’ from the upcoming G20 meeting in Washington this week will be disappointed. To put it simply, if the US creditors wait a bit longer they would get a better deal. The important question that GEAB raises above regarding the US should be considered in the following manner: will the impending (hyper-) inflation be dealt with through internal implosion (with all its ramifications for the social order in that country) or a World War as has occurred many times in the past?

Posted in Economic Issues, In The News, Other, Disaster Management, Security Measures, Europe, North America, Politics | No Comments »

May 5 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The very unfortunate and tragic death of eighteen-month-old Elijah Luck last week has people talking about the perils of  VoIP phone mobility. The scenario itself isn’t new: registered VoIP subscribers take the assigned product with them in a move of abodes without the physical address associated with emergency calls being changed to the new location. Trying to make sense of the tragedy, the public demands regulators impose some simplified process to ensure a similar scenario is not repeated.

A simple solution, however, befits a simple problem, the responsibility for which can easily be determined. Although many outside observers see the solution to issues of VoIP relocation to be as basic as imposing more regulations on service providers, this overly simplistic approach disregards the role of subscribers and 911 operators in the unfortunate scenario.

Unlike landlines, VoIP products are portable: a subscriber need only unplug a little digital box to take his or her service along to where ever high speed internet is available. Keeping the same phone number, a subscriber can travel the world and receive and make calls from their home phone number. As many VoIP service providers automatically charge subscribers’ credit cards, billing addresses aren’t really as big an issue as with landline subscribers who are invoiced monthly. VoIP subscribers can easily pick up and move without ever having to notify the service provider - and particularly in the case of subscribers who face additional charges for keeping a phone number associated with one region when moving to another, lack of address change notification might sometimes be deliberate. Given the degree of mobility associated with VoIP, subscribers - who are notified when signing up for VoIP in Canada - are partially responsible for what address is connected to a service account. The personal responsibility of VoIP users to keep emergency address information up-to-date cannot be overstated: it is the best preventative measure against disasters such as the unfortunate death of Elijah Luck.

As the way we communicate changes with the introduction of new technologies, we should concurrently reassess our old ways of doing things.  Gone are the days when physical addresses are easily tied to communication devices. We live in an unplugged world of cellular devices and internet telephony. Emergency operators taking 911 calls should now be trained to address this changing situation by quickly confirming that the address on the screen matches with the caller’s current physical location. Yes, this will add yet another layer of complication during a time-sensitive procedure, but it could prove crucial in saving lives in a modern world.

Governments too have a role in answering VoIP relocation issues - and it isn’t as a regulation vending machine. Western governments have for too long encouraged citizens to renege on personal responsibility. It is as if modern governments, not facing any real external threat, have been looking for new things from which to protect their citizenry - increasingly it seems to be a matter of protecting individuals from themselves.  After all, if the government isn’t seen to be doing something for the masses, the people might begin asking pesky questions as to what the purpose of paying into a decrepit system actually is. As a result, governments have sought to take the pressure off the individual: regulating where people can smoke, whether women can have abortions, if a person has the right to die, and in general, taking over the responsibility of individuals to care for themselves. In so doing, we have fostered a culture in Canada of putting the responsibility for our actions (or sometimes inaction) onto someone else. VoIP relocation issues are a prime example - no one wants to admit the nasty truth regarding personal responsibility. If the government should be doing anything, it should be a massive effort to change the current course of society from one in which we shun personal responsibility to one in which we accept the consequences of our actions and mistakes taking preventative measures to avoid more unfortunate outcomes.

All of this is not to say that service providers do not bear some responsibility: it is simply to say that service providers are not alone in being responsible.  In the case of Elijah Luck, I can’t help but wonder why when the Luck family changed their billing address did the service provider not flag the account to make some sort of an inquiry into the corresponding emergency address. Indeed, the Lucks may have assumed that in changing the billing address the 911 address was changed as well. A simple oversight mechanism regarding billing address changes could go a long way in preventing future tragedies. Regular automatic notices from VoIP service providers might also help build awareness and prevent issues - how difficult would it be to have an automated message service send voicemail to subscribers to remind users of the perils of not updating accounts? 

As with most security issues, there are several angles which must be addressed: seldom is a single entity solely responsible for a tragedy. As we become ever-more interconnected through technology and new models of organization, the need to look at problems through systemic analysis will only be greater. Why not start now?

Posted in Disaster Management, Security Measures, North America | No Comments »

April 16 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The Ottawa Citizen recently ran an article outing the Canadian government for its lack of a Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) plan. The only way this can be surprising is if one has never had to deal with the government in this country. 

How does a country as advanced and wealthy as Canada find itself without CIP? It’s simple, politics: not the electoral sort; not entirely the partisan party-based sort; but the traditional sort that “involves intrigue or strategy in obtaining any position of power or control” particularly as it relates to “the structure, organization, and administration of the state.” 

It’s a systemic problem that isn’t at first glance so apparent to a person on the outside .

Blinded, we focus our attentions on the elected figures from whom we demand so much accountability. We have notions that an elected official, whether he or she has a background in the subject matter for which the appointed post requires, is ultimately in control of an entire department. Whatever goes wrong is the fault of that elected representative; is he or she not, after all, in control?

Elected officials, however, are focused on what the name suggests: the next election. Regardless of how pristine and accountable we wish them to be, elected officials are in a perpetual race for popularity. (Just watch CPAC; the House of Commons is like a day-care for adults where each one screams louder and more stubbornly than the last in a bid to be heard.) Under constant threat of that next popularity contest, elected officials prefer measures that offer instant results; something tangible to take back to the electorate today; tomorrow isn’t as important; long-term strategy is for the national political martyr. Every measure, every issue is considered by a minister and his or her respective staff through this prism of looming elections. Their jobs are under eternal threat based on the whims and fancies of a widely ignorant electorate. Such is the nature of our system of democracy.

That’s why we built up that permanent mega-bureaucracy! An extensive system of bureaucrats enjoying jobs-for-life, some even unionized. Once inside one never need leave. The government bureaucracy is cushy, safe and a breeding ground for mediocrity. Salaries are determined by seniority of role, which in turn can be measured by how many others are directly under that role in the seemingly unending layers of hierarchy that is government. The permanent bureaucracy is an entity onto itself complete with self-interests and internal divisions as various departments (and individual bureaucrats) compete for “limited” funds in a race for ever-larger fiefs and more seniority. Best of all, the bureaucracy is seldom recognized by the public as distinguishable from the elected body; indeed, when bureaucratic shortcomings are brought to the public attention it is the elected representative “in charge” who is held accountable.

The bureaucracy, far from being always under the control of ministers and other elected officials, has ideas of its own. Bureaucrats, no different than others not-employed by the public sector, have party allegiances. It’s even been claimed that the bureaucracy leans considerably to one side of Canada’s political spectrum with strong ties to Canada’s most-frequently ruling party. This makes for an interesting competition between, say, a Conservative government and the bureaucracy.

Throw in interest groups and lobbyists and it’s a wonder that Canada has plans for anything at all! 

This is not to say that all of government is full of self-interested people; indeed, the government has been taking in some of Canada’s brightest minds. Unfortunately, once inside it’s like facing a giant boulder speeding down the hill in your direction - at best it can be slightly redirected with much effort, but never stopped. Anyone standing in the boulder’s way will simply be crushed.

In some ways it’s a good thing that much of Canada’s critical infrastructure (that is short of those national monuments…) is in private hands. At least given economic interests, we might have some guarantee that communication networks, for example, will still work in an emergency.

Posted in Disaster Management, Security Measures, Politics | No Comments »

March 11 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Canwest News Service recently reported ”Canada and the U.S. have signed an agreement that paves the way for the militaries from either nation to send troops across each other’s borders during an emergency.” I guess the first question might be, who determines what constitutes an emergency? 

Posted in Disaster Management, Security Measures, North America | No Comments »

February 26 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Associated Press has reported that “A “doomsday” seed vault built to protect millions of food crops from climate change, wars and natural disasters opened Tuesday deep within an Arctic mountain in the remote Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.” At last the big boys are preparing for serious disaster, when will it be time for the average person to shift their perspective and take some responsibility for their own survival?

Currently, the average person acquires food from local stores, without much thought, for a few days ahead. Should anything minor and temporary happen (forget nuclear fallout, this could just mean border closures or a strike) food supply in a place like Canada would be considerably disrupted - particularly in the winter as we have become increasingly dependent on imports from California, Mexico and elsewhere. The convenience and monotony of grocery store procurement has blinded many of us to the fact that systems are not impermeable to disruption or collapse. Furthermore, the more complex and centralized the system the more vulnerable it is to threats and widespread destruction, much like a domino effect - such is the nature of a system that is reliant on say a central point of food distribution that ships products out across long distances to stores agreeing to carry said produce exclusively. Attack the centre and it all falls down.

Unfortunately, most people don’t want to think about such things. Thus, it’s easier to just continue as they always have, dependent on a wider system ignorant of the dangers that such dependency creates. If only more people would entertain the possibility of these threats and make plans, (obviously not on the scale of the Norwegians,) to truly guard their own interests the world might be that much more stable.

Posted in Disaster Management, Food Security, Europe | No Comments »

February 14 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The Refugees of the Blue Planet is a must watch documentary that illustrates how little value is placed on the individual and, indeed, entire communities at the expense of our current consumption-driven system. Although many in the West find it easy to brush off the threats of food and water scarcity and rising sea levels as a distant scare to poorer nations, much of what has led to such crises stems from our own choices.

What is particularly enlightening about this documentary is the inclusion of Canadians who are pushed off farms due to oil and other production. What’s particularly shocking is how the neighbours and fellow-townspeople will turn on such victims of so-called progress in this so-called advanced nation.

This should be mandatory viewing for everyone.

Posted in Disaster Management, Water Issues, Environment, Politics | No Comments »

January 25 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

According to Computerworld, “criminals have been able to hack into computer systems via the Internet and cut power to several cities”. The source of this revelation was CIA analyst Tom Donahue speaking at a conference last Wednesday.

The vulnerabilities of the power grid should come as no surprise to any thinking person, after all, it only takes a downed tree to knock out power to thousands. Furthermore, the North American power grid is a complex machine, as an article entitled “What’s wrong with the electric grid?” suggests the world’s biggest machine, riddled with the usual political wrangling, economics-above-security and resultant mass vulnerabilities. Who needs internet hackers to disrupt service, when any number of “natural” causes can do the trick?

This is not to say that hackers using the internet (why are power grids even connected to something as vulnerable as the internet anyway?) should not be considered a real threat. However, this eternal obsession in security with complex bogey-threats (such as terrorists with shoe and liquid bombs sneaking past airport security) suggest a misplaced focus in the field. After all, why would a terrorist who really wants to achieve what the term suggests risk having his or her plot being foiled by low-level security if a plane can be brought down with simpler means outside the airport or power to millions can be disrupted by trees?

Perhaps it’s time to start looking at the system as a whole as opposed to being blinded by the rare sensationalist threat.

Posted in Disaster Management, North America | No Comments »

December 12 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

In the novel Blindness, José Saramago deftly presents the all too prevalent short-comings of mankind - particularly during an emergency situation. A difficult read at times, if only because the brutal reality that is the nature of man is so blatantly put before the reader, Blindness realistically portrays the ease of descent to which man is apt to succumb during an extreme emergency.

The story line follows a group of people who are initially infected with a bizarre virus which renders the sufferer blind. The blindness is far from ordinary, leaving those afflicted seeing only a milky white light. Patient Zero, along with those immediately infected by coming into contact with him, are quickly quarantined in an abandoned mental hospital where social norms (including civility) are soon lost.

The city as well as the characters are all nameless, identified only by their profession, order of infection or physical characteristics as seen through the eyes of the only person to mysteriously remain sighted, the doctor’s wife.

The narrative is written in a style, which can be challenging to follow, that denotes a single stream of consciousness. The thoughts and voices of the main group of characters seem meshed into one and differentiating who said what can prove difficult. Undoubtedly, the author chose to use this complicated style to illustrate the ease with which identity, the ever-illusive concept that seems to hold our superficial civilization together, is lost. In this sense, everyone is on equal footing and no different from the other when all of society is facing a crisis. Wealth, fame and power mean nothing when all of the structure it was based on collapses.

For those who believe in the resiliency of human nature to overcome and co-operate in a crisis situation, this work stands in stark contrast. Although in the doctor’s wife the importance of what a good leader can do for those few around who opt to be led and assisted, the majority quickly degenerate to the most base state of existence. Indeed, events that have occurred since the 1999 publishing of Saramago’s book only confirm such horrific realities, namely, the unfortunate happenings inside the Superdome following the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The accounts of a single week in the Superdome eerily mirror those in the book. Perhaps what is worse in the real life example is that the participants, both victims and aggressors, were not blind or facing months of unknown hardship without the support of a nation, unlike the characters in Blindness.

Saramago’s work should be compulsory reading for everyone in order that we are all confronted with the true aspects of our current human nature. If we do not accept that these shortcomings are, indeed, fact, we stand no hope of actually developing effective plans in the event of a disaster. Preparing for the worst involves preparing for ourselves, preparing for the unstable and cruel reactions to which human beings seem to gravitate when they believe all hope is lost - if even for a few days.

Posted in Disaster Management | No Comments »

November 13 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

The following is an interesting article posted on the Continuity and Business blog managed by John Fernandes:

Time to return to a theme we have sounded on numerous occasions in the past three years. In a recent post we called for a renewed investment in our public health and social service infrastructure as the best strategy. The object is to harden local communities and make them more resilient to all kinds of shocks, not just a pandemic. We should have added, however, that this means local preparation can’t be too local: only looking after ourselves and our families. Of course families should prepare, to the best of their ability, and having some reasonable stockpile will stand them in good stead whether it is a pandemic, a flood, a hurricane or a blizzard. But the more important point is that making a community more resilient requires structures that allow us to help each other, not just protect ourselves.

People react in different ways to community disasters. Some hunker down and wall themselves off from their neighbors. In a pandemic, this will serve a useful purpose and I don’t condemn anyone for doing it. But experience shows many people will also try to help their neighbors, even if it entails added risk to themselves. If you aren’t a helper, you could easily be among the helped. Communities where the impulse to help is encouraged and facilitated will do much better than those where helping others depends on individual heroic initiative. In practical terms, this means looking ahead to organizing and using volunteers efficiently, establishing means of communication (like neighborhood visiting groups) that allow others to know when a family is in distress, having community stockpiles and resources available for those who need it (e.g., essential medications or baby formula) are all part of thinking like a community, not just acting like anonymous individuals and isolated families.

It’s easier to prepare individually than to get your neighborhood or community moving in the right direction and individual prepping is a good thing. But it’s not the only thing.

Posted in Disaster Management, Health Preparedness | No Comments »

November 12 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

CBC news has reported that:

“The provincial Labour Ministry is investigating the bridge collapse that injured six construction workers in southwestern Ontario on Saturday.

Ontario Labour Ministry spokesman Tom Zach said Sunday a team of experts remain at the collapsed bridge, interviewing the contractor and engineers and examining bridge drawings.

“We’re looking to see if proper safety precautions were taken during the building of this bridge,” Zach said.

Rescuers said construction workers were pouring concrete on the deck of the two-lane bridge near the small community of Lucknow, Ont., when the structure came crashing down on Saturday afternoon. Lucknow is about 110 kilometres north of London.

Two workers remain in hospital with non-life threatening injuries, including one man who broke his leg, police said. Four others suffered minor injuries, including cuts, bruises, and sprained ankles.

“There’s a lot of twisted steel and cement everywhere,” said Capt. Stephen MacPherson of the Goderich Volunteer Fire Department, adding that it’s amazing no one was pinned in the rubble.

Work started last July on the bridge, which was originally due to open Nov. 5. But it’s been estimated to be 10 weeks behind schedule.”

With crumbling infrastructure in Minneapolis, Montreal and Toronto the question is not one of whether more similar collapses will occur but when. Much of North American highway infrastructure was begun after World War II and designed for much less traffic than is currently experienced on such roads and overpasses. Nevertheless, this same infrastructure is used day in and day out, and, due to congestion keeping up with minor repairs, forget developing a viable alternative, is all that can be done to keep our current system moving.

A recent federal government announcement to provide a $33-billion Building Canada budget is just a drop in the ocean. The funds are to be stretched out across Canada in a provincial cost-sharing initiative for improvements to not only roads but public water systems and emergency preparedness too. Toronto and other big cities might see some minor improvements as a result, but small towns such as Lucknow where at times a single restaurant or grocery store struggles to be maintained will likely continue to crumble.

With an utter lack of strategic planning in North America over the last 20 years, the story of our critical infrastructure might be more aptly titled, “that’s the way the cookie crumbles.”

Posted in Economic Issues, Disaster Management, Security Measures, North America | No Comments »