November 12 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), produced by the influential think tank LEAP/Europe 2020, predicts that the US Government will default on its debt anytime before next summer. The analysis presented in their recent issue here suggests that the default will occur due to the following five factors:

“• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets

• Thanks to its recent «political baptism», the Euro becomes a credible «safe haven» value and therefore provides a «crisis» alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country’s defaulting

• «Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009?», that is the only question.”

The outline presented in the GEAB generally corresponds to what we have been saying for a while with regard to the future of the US (and all the implications for those countries tied to it). The ‘global financial meltdown’ that is unfolding now is far from reaching its climax, one reason being the impending derivatives bubble that must burst and destroy the false economy based on speculation in order to start re-building the global economy. Those who expect any ‘meaningful results’ from the upcoming G20 meeting in Washington this week will be disappointed. To put it simply, if the US creditors wait a bit longer they would get a better deal. The important question that GEAB raises above regarding the US should be considered in the following manner: will the impending (hyper-) inflation be dealt with through internal implosion (with all its ramifications for the social order in that country) or a World War as has occurred many times in the past?

Posted in Economic Issues, In The News, Other, Disaster Management, Security Measures, Europe, North America, Politics | No Comments »

October 17 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The movie below is written and directed by Peter Joseph. It is 123 min long and offers a lot of food-for-thought. We welcome your comments.

Posted in Identity Management, Security Measures, Health Preparedness, Economic Issues, In The News, Water Issues, Food Security, Africa, Asia, North America, South America, Environment, Politics | No Comments »

October 15 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The systemic crisis that now unfolds in the world cannot be fully understood without first understanding what role ‘money’ plays in all areas of human life. Initially introduced as a means of exchange between consenting parties, money was tied to tangible goods produced by spending physical energy (both resources and labour). In the last 400 years money has turned into an ‘independent’ player that has commodified every aspect of human life, without exception. In other words, from a marginal tool of exchange in social interactions (otherwise governed by centuries-long traditions of moral and behavioural codes) money has became the ultimate end-goal, codifier and master of all relations. Needless to say, in the present system the control over the supply side of money determines everything else. The article by Charles Eisenstein entitled ‘Money and the Crisis of Civilization’ presents a simple review of how this system was created and sheds light on why it won’t be able to survive. To date, the continuation of the system was characterized by cycles of wars and conflicts to prop it up. How many people have paused and considered what is coming next?

Posted in In The News, Economic Issues, Politics | No Comments »

October 9 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The number of articles around the world that describe people’s reactions to the mounting financial crisis is on the rise. As the number of private and corporate bankruptcies grow so will the pressure on governments and societies affected by the crisis. The situation is of particular concern in the Northern Hemisphere given the approaching winter months and possible disruptions to just in time food deliveries.

Posted in Economic Issues, Food Security, North America | No Comments »

May 12 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Time of the Vulture, a comprehensive report by Darryl Robert Schoon, provides some interesting insights into a pending global economic catastrophe. It’s eye-opening and definitely worth checking out.

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May 8 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Newsday has reported that a former detainee held in Guantanamo Bay has carried out a suicide attack in Iraq that killed seven people. This shouldn’t be surprising; the mass detention of so-called enemy combatants, many without trial for years on end, only ensures that the U.S. and its allies will have a growing body of angry Muslim men who now have a real grudge to bear. In fact, “preventative strikes” and prison camps are but a recipe for future terrorism; from a security stand point such an approach never really made much sense.

Abdallah Salih al-Ajmi had reportedly been detained in Guantanamo Bay for 3.5 years where his lawyer said that al-Ajmi once “appeared for a meeting with a broken arm…that al-Ajmi said he had suffered…when guards tried to stop him from praying.” In 2005, al-Ajmi was transferred to Kuwait where he was acquitted in 2006. Settling down, al-Ajmi married and had a child, according to his cousin, Salem al-Ajmi, to whom the suicide attack came as a surprise.

Posted in Security Measures, Middle East | No Comments »

May 5 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The very unfortunate and tragic death of eighteen-month-old Elijah Luck last week has people talking about the perils of  VoIP phone mobility. The scenario itself isn’t new: registered VoIP subscribers take the assigned product with them in a move of abodes without the physical address associated with emergency calls being changed to the new location. Trying to make sense of the tragedy, the public demands regulators impose some simplified process to ensure a similar scenario is not repeated.

A simple solution, however, befits a simple problem, the responsibility for which can easily be determined. Although many outside observers see the solution to issues of VoIP relocation to be as basic as imposing more regulations on service providers, this overly simplistic approach disregards the role of subscribers and 911 operators in the unfortunate scenario.

Unlike landlines, VoIP products are portable: a subscriber need only unplug a little digital box to take his or her service along to where ever high speed internet is available. Keeping the same phone number, a subscriber can travel the world and receive and make calls from their home phone number. As many VoIP service providers automatically charge subscribers’ credit cards, billing addresses aren’t really as big an issue as with landline subscribers who are invoiced monthly. VoIP subscribers can easily pick up and move without ever having to notify the service provider - and particularly in the case of subscribers who face additional charges for keeping a phone number associated with one region when moving to another, lack of address change notification might sometimes be deliberate. Given the degree of mobility associated with VoIP, subscribers - who are notified when signing up for VoIP in Canada - are partially responsible for what address is connected to a service account. The personal responsibility of VoIP users to keep emergency address information up-to-date cannot be overstated: it is the best preventative measure against disasters such as the unfortunate death of Elijah Luck.

As the way we communicate changes with the introduction of new technologies, we should concurrently reassess our old ways of doing things.  Gone are the days when physical addresses are easily tied to communication devices. We live in an unplugged world of cellular devices and internet telephony. Emergency operators taking 911 calls should now be trained to address this changing situation by quickly confirming that the address on the screen matches with the caller’s current physical location. Yes, this will add yet another layer of complication during a time-sensitive procedure, but it could prove crucial in saving lives in a modern world.

Governments too have a role in answering VoIP relocation issues - and it isn’t as a regulation vending machine. Western governments have for too long encouraged citizens to renege on personal responsibility. It is as if modern governments, not facing any real external threat, have been looking for new things from which to protect their citizenry - increasingly it seems to be a matter of protecting individuals from themselves.  After all, if the government isn’t seen to be doing something for the masses, the people might begin asking pesky questions as to what the purpose of paying into a decrepit system actually is. As a result, governments have sought to take the pressure off the individual: regulating where people can smoke, whether women can have abortions, if a person has the right to die, and in general, taking over the responsibility of individuals to care for themselves. In so doing, we have fostered a culture in Canada of putting the responsibility for our actions (or sometimes inaction) onto someone else. VoIP relocation issues are a prime example - no one wants to admit the nasty truth regarding personal responsibility. If the government should be doing anything, it should be a massive effort to change the current course of society from one in which we shun personal responsibility to one in which we accept the consequences of our actions and mistakes taking preventative measures to avoid more unfortunate outcomes.

All of this is not to say that service providers do not bear some responsibility: it is simply to say that service providers are not alone in being responsible.  In the case of Elijah Luck, I can’t help but wonder why when the Luck family changed their billing address did the service provider not flag the account to make some sort of an inquiry into the corresponding emergency address. Indeed, the Lucks may have assumed that in changing the billing address the 911 address was changed as well. A simple oversight mechanism regarding billing address changes could go a long way in preventing future tragedies. Regular automatic notices from VoIP service providers might also help build awareness and prevent issues - how difficult would it be to have an automated message service send voicemail to subscribers to remind users of the perils of not updating accounts? 

As with most security issues, there are several angles which must be addressed: seldom is a single entity solely responsible for a tragedy. As we become ever-more interconnected through technology and new models of organization, the need to look at problems through systemic analysis will only be greater. Why not start now?

Posted in Disaster Management, Security Measures, North America | No Comments »

April 16 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The Ottawa Citizen recently ran an article outing the Canadian government for its lack of a Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) plan. The only way this can be surprising is if one has never had to deal with the government in this country. 

How does a country as advanced and wealthy as Canada find itself without CIP? It’s simple, politics: not the electoral sort; not entirely the partisan party-based sort; but the traditional sort that “involves intrigue or strategy in obtaining any position of power or control” particularly as it relates to “the structure, organization, and administration of the state.” 

It’s a systemic problem that isn’t at first glance so apparent to a person on the outside .

Blinded, we focus our attentions on the elected figures from whom we demand so much accountability. We have notions that an elected official, whether he or she has a background in the subject matter for which the appointed post requires, is ultimately in control of an entire department. Whatever goes wrong is the fault of that elected representative; is he or she not, after all, in control?

Elected officials, however, are focused on what the name suggests: the next election. Regardless of how pristine and accountable we wish them to be, elected officials are in a perpetual race for popularity. (Just watch CPAC; the House of Commons is like a day-care for adults where each one screams louder and more stubbornly than the last in a bid to be heard.) Under constant threat of that next popularity contest, elected officials prefer measures that offer instant results; something tangible to take back to the electorate today; tomorrow isn’t as important; long-term strategy is for the national political martyr. Every measure, every issue is considered by a minister and his or her respective staff through this prism of looming elections. Their jobs are under eternal threat based on the whims and fancies of a widely ignorant electorate. Such is the nature of our system of democracy.

That’s why we built up that permanent mega-bureaucracy! An extensive system of bureaucrats enjoying jobs-for-life, some even unionized. Once inside one never need leave. The government bureaucracy is cushy, safe and a breeding ground for mediocrity. Salaries are determined by seniority of role, which in turn can be measured by how many others are directly under that role in the seemingly unending layers of hierarchy that is government. The permanent bureaucracy is an entity onto itself complete with self-interests and internal divisions as various departments (and individual bureaucrats) compete for “limited” funds in a race for ever-larger fiefs and more seniority. Best of all, the bureaucracy is seldom recognized by the public as distinguishable from the elected body; indeed, when bureaucratic shortcomings are brought to the public attention it is the elected representative “in charge” who is held accountable.

The bureaucracy, far from being always under the control of ministers and other elected officials, has ideas of its own. Bureaucrats, no different than others not-employed by the public sector, have party allegiances. It’s even been claimed that the bureaucracy leans considerably to one side of Canada’s political spectrum with strong ties to Canada’s most-frequently ruling party. This makes for an interesting competition between, say, a Conservative government and the bureaucracy.

Throw in interest groups and lobbyists and it’s a wonder that Canada has plans for anything at all! 

This is not to say that all of government is full of self-interested people; indeed, the government has been taking in some of Canada’s brightest minds. Unfortunately, once inside it’s like facing a giant boulder speeding down the hill in your direction - at best it can be slightly redirected with much effort, but never stopped. Anyone standing in the boulder’s way will simply be crushed.

In some ways it’s a good thing that much of Canada’s critical infrastructure (that is short of those national monuments…) is in private hands. At least given economic interests, we might have some guarantee that communication networks, for example, will still work in an emergency.

Posted in Disaster Management, Security Measures, Politics | No Comments »

April 11 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

This week’s Friday Fun comes from Nury Vittachi with an article published in The Island:

The real pandemic shows its face at last

The Centre for Disease Control last night issued an urgent medical alert about a dangerous virus that could have a catastrophic effect on the world economy.

“We’ve seen massive outbreaks in numerous countries,” said a spokesman. “While we’re hoping for the best, this could be the pandemic we’ve been dreading. We urge all member governments to take preventative action immediately.”

Doctors are calling the virus Generally Reductive Economically Enervating Dementia, or GREED. If left untreated, it almost inevitably leads to full-blown economic deficiency syndrome.

Overview: Extraordinarily, the GREED virus avoids children and poor people, and has hit the West far more heavily than Asia. Almost all the victims are upper-middle class or wealthy, and usually male. Scientists are investigating whether some part of the yuppie lifestyle—designer suits, sports cars or first class air tickets—is triggering the disease. Ironically, in the majority of cases it eventually causes a dramatic shrinkage of the bank account and can lead to total cashectomies, which is the reduction of the sufferer’s net worth to zero.

Early symptoms: In the incubation stage, the sufferer starts to make clearly absurd decisions, such as believing he can make money by granting massive home loans to people who cannot possible pay them off. This was first observed in New York’s Wall Street, but spread to banks all over the world, including Asian banks such as HSBC.

Advanced symptoms: As the disease takes hold, the sufferer will choose to make “safe bets” by buying property in cities which are already the most expensive in the world. In the later stages of the disease, he will put the remainder of his cash in hedge funds with names such as the High Risk Probable Asian Disaster Fund. Throughout this period, any attempt to warn him of the inherent dangers in such moves will typically result in an increase in bizarre investments.

Transmission: “Now here’s the really bad news,” said Dieter Boringly, spokesman for the World Health Organization. “We can confirm that we have numerous documented cases of human-to-human transmission.” Certain sufferers have been designated “super-spreaders”, having been observed to spread the disease to the middle classes. Intriguingly, many of these carried business cards bearing the phrase “Financial Planner”.

Contagion: Doctors warn that the condition can be spread in numerous ways. “It seems to be carried by financial newspapers, where it settles on pages with titles such as ‘Your Money’ or ‘Stock Tips,’ said Dr David Daft, a virologist.

High-risk behavior has exacerbated the spread of the condition among people of various classes who make unprotected investments. “Always use protection,” he said. “That’s our advice to everyone, including the Pope.

“Treatment: Doctors says sufferers needs to be isolated—with electric cattle-prods if necessary—from newsstands selling financial papers, screens showing stock market data, and the storefronts of real estate agents.”But prevention is the best cure,” added Mr Boringly of the WHO. “Make sure you eat several portions of fruit and vegetables a day, and above all, never, never, never come into contact with a stockbroker, investment banker or financial planner without washing your hands with powerful anti-bacterial cream.”

Meanwhile, people in “low-class” jobs such as toilet-cleaning and journalism are watching with astonishment as wealthy financial people lose everything. “My heart bleeds for them,” said columnist Nury Vittachi, expressing his deep sympathy by laughing hysterically.

*Sufferers can write to Nury via www.vittachi.com to be sneered at further”

Posted in Economic Issues | No Comments »

April 10 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Here’s an interesting map for anyone watching the rate of home foreclosures in the U.S. The worst affected areas by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco are to date California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Nevada.

Posted in Economic Issues, North America | No Comments »