November 12 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), produced by the influential think tank LEAP/Europe 2020, predicts that the US Government will default on its debt anytime before next summer. The analysis presented in their recent issue here suggests that the default will occur due to the following five factors:

“• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets

• Thanks to its recent «political baptism», the Euro becomes a credible «safe haven» value and therefore provides a «crisis» alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country’s defaulting

• «Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009?», that is the only question.”

The outline presented in the GEAB generally corresponds to what we have been saying for a while with regard to the future of the US (and all the implications for those countries tied to it). The ‘global financial meltdown’ that is unfolding now is far from reaching its climax, one reason being the impending derivatives bubble that must burst and destroy the false economy based on speculation in order to start re-building the global economy. Those who expect any ‘meaningful results’ from the upcoming G20 meeting in Washington this week will be disappointed. To put it simply, if the US creditors wait a bit longer they would get a better deal. The important question that GEAB raises above regarding the US should be considered in the following manner: will the impending (hyper-) inflation be dealt with through internal implosion (with all its ramifications for the social order in that country) or a World War as has occurred many times in the past?

Posted in Economic Issues, In The News, Other, Disaster Management, Security Measures, Europe, North America, Politics | No Comments »

October 17 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The movie below is written and directed by Peter Joseph. It is 123 min long and offers a lot of food-for-thought. We welcome your comments.

Posted in Identity Management, Security Measures, Health Preparedness, Economic Issues, In The News, Water Issues, Food Security, Africa, Asia, North America, South America, Environment, Politics | No Comments »

October 9 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The number of articles around the world that describe people’s reactions to the mounting financial crisis is on the rise. As the number of private and corporate bankruptcies grow so will the pressure on governments and societies affected by the crisis. The situation is of particular concern in the Northern Hemisphere given the approaching winter months and possible disruptions to just in time food deliveries.

Posted in Economic Issues, Food Security, North America | No Comments »

May 5 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The very unfortunate and tragic death of eighteen-month-old Elijah Luck last week has people talking about the perils of  VoIP phone mobility. The scenario itself isn’t new: registered VoIP subscribers take the assigned product with them in a move of abodes without the physical address associated with emergency calls being changed to the new location. Trying to make sense of the tragedy, the public demands regulators impose some simplified process to ensure a similar scenario is not repeated.

A simple solution, however, befits a simple problem, the responsibility for which can easily be determined. Although many outside observers see the solution to issues of VoIP relocation to be as basic as imposing more regulations on service providers, this overly simplistic approach disregards the role of subscribers and 911 operators in the unfortunate scenario.

Unlike landlines, VoIP products are portable: a subscriber need only unplug a little digital box to take his or her service along to where ever high speed internet is available. Keeping the same phone number, a subscriber can travel the world and receive and make calls from their home phone number. As many VoIP service providers automatically charge subscribers’ credit cards, billing addresses aren’t really as big an issue as with landline subscribers who are invoiced monthly. VoIP subscribers can easily pick up and move without ever having to notify the service provider - and particularly in the case of subscribers who face additional charges for keeping a phone number associated with one region when moving to another, lack of address change notification might sometimes be deliberate. Given the degree of mobility associated with VoIP, subscribers - who are notified when signing up for VoIP in Canada - are partially responsible for what address is connected to a service account. The personal responsibility of VoIP users to keep emergency address information up-to-date cannot be overstated: it is the best preventative measure against disasters such as the unfortunate death of Elijah Luck.

As the way we communicate changes with the introduction of new technologies, we should concurrently reassess our old ways of doing things.  Gone are the days when physical addresses are easily tied to communication devices. We live in an unplugged world of cellular devices and internet telephony. Emergency operators taking 911 calls should now be trained to address this changing situation by quickly confirming that the address on the screen matches with the caller’s current physical location. Yes, this will add yet another layer of complication during a time-sensitive procedure, but it could prove crucial in saving lives in a modern world.

Governments too have a role in answering VoIP relocation issues - and it isn’t as a regulation vending machine. Western governments have for too long encouraged citizens to renege on personal responsibility. It is as if modern governments, not facing any real external threat, have been looking for new things from which to protect their citizenry - increasingly it seems to be a matter of protecting individuals from themselves.  After all, if the government isn’t seen to be doing something for the masses, the people might begin asking pesky questions as to what the purpose of paying into a decrepit system actually is. As a result, governments have sought to take the pressure off the individual: regulating where people can smoke, whether women can have abortions, if a person has the right to die, and in general, taking over the responsibility of individuals to care for themselves. In so doing, we have fostered a culture in Canada of putting the responsibility for our actions (or sometimes inaction) onto someone else. VoIP relocation issues are a prime example - no one wants to admit the nasty truth regarding personal responsibility. If the government should be doing anything, it should be a massive effort to change the current course of society from one in which we shun personal responsibility to one in which we accept the consequences of our actions and mistakes taking preventative measures to avoid more unfortunate outcomes.

All of this is not to say that service providers do not bear some responsibility: it is simply to say that service providers are not alone in being responsible.  In the case of Elijah Luck, I can’t help but wonder why when the Luck family changed their billing address did the service provider not flag the account to make some sort of an inquiry into the corresponding emergency address. Indeed, the Lucks may have assumed that in changing the billing address the 911 address was changed as well. A simple oversight mechanism regarding billing address changes could go a long way in preventing future tragedies. Regular automatic notices from VoIP service providers might also help build awareness and prevent issues - how difficult would it be to have an automated message service send voicemail to subscribers to remind users of the perils of not updating accounts? 

As with most security issues, there are several angles which must be addressed: seldom is a single entity solely responsible for a tragedy. As we become ever-more interconnected through technology and new models of organization, the need to look at problems through systemic analysis will only be greater. Why not start now?

Posted in Disaster Management, Security Measures, North America | No Comments »

April 25 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

In the year 2008, the Lord came unto Noah, who was now living in Canada, and said, ‘Once again, the earth has become wicked and over-populated, and I see the end of all flesh before me.

Build another Ark and save 2 of every living thing along with a few good humans.’

He gave Noah the blueprints, saying, ‘You have 6 months to build the Ark before I will start the unending rain for 40 days and 40 nights.’

Six months later, the Lord looked down and saw Noah weeping in his yard - but no Ark.

‘Noah!’ He roared , ‘I’m about to start the rain! Where is the Ark?’

‘Forgive me, Lord,’ begged Noah, ‘but things have changed. I needed a building permit. I’ve been arguing with the inspector about the need for a sprinkler system. My neighbors claim that I’ve violated the neighborhood zoning laws by building the Ark in my yard and exceeding the height limitations. We had to go to the Development Appeal Board for a decision.

Then Hydro One demanded a bond be posted for the future costs of moving power lines and other overhead obstructions, to clear the passage for the Ark’s move to the sea. I told them that the sea would be coming to us, but they would hear nothing of it.

Getting the wood was another problem. There’s a ban on cutting local trees in order to save the spotted owl. I tried to convince the environmentalists that I needed the wood to save the owls - but no go!

When I started gathering the animals, an animal rights group sued me. They insisted that I was confining wild animals against their will. They argued the accommodation was too restrictive, and it was cruel and inhumane to put so many animals in a confined space.

Then the Ministry of the Environment ruled that I couldn’t build the Ark until they’d conducted an environmental impact study on your proposed flood.

I’m still trying to resolve a complaint with the Human Rights Commission on how many minorities I’m supposed to hire for my building crew.

Immigration and Naturalization are checking the Visa status of most of the people who want to work.

The trades unions say I can’t use my sons. They insist I have to hire only union workers with Ark-building experience.

To make matters worse, Revenue Canada seized all my assets, claiming I’m trying to leave the country illegally with endangered species.

So, forgive me, Lord, but it will take at least 10 years for me to finish this Ark.’

Suddenly the skies cleared, the sun began to shine, and a rainbow stretched across the sky. Noah looked up in wonder and asked, ‘You mean you’re not going to destroy the world?’

‘No,’ said the Lord.

‘The Government beat me to it.’

Posted in Other, North America | No Comments »

April 10 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Here’s an interesting map for anyone watching the rate of home foreclosures in the U.S. The worst affected areas by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco are to date California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Nevada.

Posted in Economic Issues, North America | No Comments »

April 10 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The Globe and Mail has reported that Industry Canada minister Jim Prentice has decided to block the sale of the satellite Radarsat-2 by Canadian firm MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd.  to the U.S. firm Alliant Techsystems Inc.

The move, hailed as unprecedented, could be a boon to the Conservative party. Widely seen by critics and the media as pandering to the U.S., the Conservative government’s refusal stands in direct contradiction to such negative imaging.

Whatever the political gains, it’s a good thing that Radarsat-2 is to remain Canadian. 

Posted in Security Measures, North America, Politics | No Comments »

April 7 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The following clip highlights the interesting perspective of Jonah Goldberg on what should be termed Liberazism. While I don’t really share all of Jonah’s opinions, particularly on colonialism and the war in Iraq for example, I think that the views expressed in the clip below are definitely worth further consideration.

Posted in North America, Politics | No Comments »

April 4 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Given the rising cost of gasoline this game should be of interest to everyone. Scenario development games are a great way of coping with future issues. World Without Oil is particularly timely. Here’s the official blurb about the game:

“WORLD WITHOUT OIL is a serious game for the public good. WWO invited people from all walks of life to contribute “collective imagination” to confront a real-world issue: the risk our unbridled thirst for oil poses to our economy, climate and quality of life. It’s a milestone in the quest to use games as democratic, collaborative platforms for exploring possible futures and sparking future-changing action. WWO set the model for using a hot net-native storytelling method (‘alternate reality’) to meet civic and educational goals. Best of all, it was compellingly fun.”

It’s a wonder that humans haven’t already found something with which to substitute oil. This attachment (read: obsession with) to oil is very short-sighted. With games like this, at least they will be prepared for the fall out…

Posted in Other, North America | No Comments »

April 3 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

There was a lot of buzz in the media this morning around Canada’s growing diversity. A lot of hype, but few questions and serious analyses. Our eagerness to splash statistics attesting to our changing social fabric without assessment of what these figures mean is but another example of an inability in Canada to think critically and strategically. It’s as if an issue arises and we, as a result of the lenses we are told to look through, become timid, subdued and afraid to ask any questions for fear of being perceived as against the mainstream. Prevailing mentalities in this country are so strong that we have successfully quashed any chance of engaging each other in much needed dialogue about the future of this country. Case in point - in the context of diversity why isn’t anyone asking about the future of Canadian identity?

Analysing diversity beyond how it is increased or better manifested in the workplace seems to be patently un-Canadian. We’re told that, as Canadians, we are a nice people, an accepting people. Indeed, I would venture so far as to say that we are a tolerant people. Little analysis, however, has been done as to whether this tolerance was bred from a genuine understanding for the things and people of which we are accepting or from a slow suffocation of unsavoury opinions and biases that far from having been eradicated seethe somewhere beneath the surface. It’s an ugly question and we, nice Canadians, don’t seem to be willing to entertain it.

It’s likely that we arrived at our current tolerance through a mix of both approaches, but our fear of analysing the way in which we did come to it renders us mute, unable to tackle any wider issues associated with accommodation.

Although there was much talk today about the considerable increase in visible minorities, there was startlingly little discourse on how immigration impacts a greater sense of Canadian identity and thus community. No one seemed prepared to ask how the 1,109,980 people who immigrated to Canada between 2001 and 2006 integrated into Canadian society. Sure, there is concern over discrimination of the 83.9% of those immigrants who are from “non-European countries”, but there is little consideration of what is being done by immigrants to reach out to the rest of Canada. It’s as if we have developed a mentality that the smaller group is by default a victim and, as a result, the larger group is responsible alone for accommodation - so much so that asking many questions has become unacceptable.

Another reason why questions aren’t being asked is because in recent years there hasn’t been a problem. Many Diasporas already have established communities into which new immigrants are absorbed. (Brampton is perhaps the poster-city for such settlement.) Integration becomes a non-issue; migrants are essentially just moving from country to country while remaining in the same wider community. What sort of impact does this “enclaving” have on the wider Canadian community? Does the sense of community fostered in ethnic enclaves overshadow that which should be forged as a country? Could the network maintained by ethnic communities across borders (for example a group spread across Canada, the U.S., the U.K and South Asia) impact national interests and if so, how? Are we moving towards creating a ‘global identity’ where borders don’t matter anymore? By the way, with increasing global communications and examples offered by regional supra-national bodies such the European Union where a ‘European identity’ is being forged as we speak, the latter proposition is no longer a matter of vision but reality.

If, however, we’re still talking about a ‘Canadian identity’ then the subject must be addressed head on. What does Canadian identity actually mean and what purpose does the notion serve? If it is meant to define a group of people as ‘something that we are’, then it has to include a clear articulation of what do we, as a community, stand for and represent, which inevitably connects with a wider question: what are our interests? A clear articulation of this will provide the best indication, locally and globally, of what Canada is all about. It will also serve as the best indicator of what Canada can offer to the wider world. If the notion is meant to define a group as ‘something that we are not’, then the on-going debate in Canada about how different we are (or not) from our neighbours to the south may be sufficient for everyone.

The same statistics that provide immigration numbers also point to a growing urban-rural divide in Canada which may further complicates the future of a Canadian identity. Given that 96% of Canada’s visible minorities live in cities, what might be the associations made among an increasingly bitter rural population facing ever-more education and health care cutbacks, not to mention a lack of jobs? Economic troubles typically bring with them social divisions, hatred for those who are perceived to have what the others have not. Could those rural populations, which tend to feel more “ethnically” Canadian than those in urban centres, lash out against immigrant groups as a result? Apart from the rural-urban divide, what about relations between the immigrant communities themselves? Is anything being done to bring various ethnic groups together to prevent such divisions? Do we even consider the importance of perceptions in building or undermining stability?

In a country with a population of 31,241,030 only 4.3 million feel ethnically Canadian. Another 5.7 million see themselves as ethnically Canadian, but also consider themselves as having other ethnic origins. Being ethnically Canadian, mixed or not, is on the decline, down from 11.7 million in 2001 to just over 10 million. Just under 6.2 million are foreign-born. This leaves over 21 million people (nearly 15 million of which were born here) in Canada feeling that they are ethnically something other than Canadian. I suppose part of the reason this figure is so high is due to the definition of ethnicity (i.e. how do people define themselves), but I think it is also telling about a potential lack of Canadian identity. After all, ethnicity is perhaps one of the strongest identifiers for a group of people. Our continued focus on breaking down the population by ethnic groups or visible minorities only helps entrench past ties, sometimes generations-old, with extra-national groups. Hardly the stuff national identities are made out of.

Sure, diversity is great. When cultures do come together, truly integrating and co-operating as a whole not just living side-by-side in respective communities, considerable progress can be made. With all of our focus on ethnic statistics and hiring quotas, however, it seems that Canada isn’t really succeeding in developing that wider national community necessary for really capitalizing on its diversity. Indeed, it’s as if we can’t see the need for wider integrated community (read: forest) as a result of our distraction by ethnic diversity (read: trees).

Posted in Identity Management, North America | No Comments »