November 12 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), produced by the influential think tank LEAP/Europe 2020, predicts that the US Government will default on its debt anytime before next summer. The analysis presented in their recent issue here suggests that the default will occur due to the following five factors:

“• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets

• Thanks to its recent «political baptism», the Euro becomes a credible «safe haven» value and therefore provides a «crisis» alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country’s defaulting

• «Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009?», that is the only question.”

The outline presented in the GEAB generally corresponds to what we have been saying for a while with regard to the future of the US (and all the implications for those countries tied to it). The ‘global financial meltdown’ that is unfolding now is far from reaching its climax, one reason being the impending derivatives bubble that must burst and destroy the false economy based on speculation in order to start re-building the global economy. Those who expect any ‘meaningful results’ from the upcoming G20 meeting in Washington this week will be disappointed. To put it simply, if the US creditors wait a bit longer they would get a better deal. The important question that GEAB raises above regarding the US should be considered in the following manner: will the impending (hyper-) inflation be dealt with through internal implosion (with all its ramifications for the social order in that country) or a World War as has occurred many times in the past?

Posted in Economic Issues, In The News, Other, Disaster Management, Security Measures, Europe, North America, Politics | No Comments »

October 17 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The movie below is written and directed by Peter Joseph. It is 123 min long and offers a lot of food-for-thought. We welcome your comments.

Posted in Identity Management, Security Measures, Health Preparedness, Economic Issues, In The News, Water Issues, Food Security, Africa, Asia, North America, South America, Environment, Politics | No Comments »

October 15 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The systemic crisis that now unfolds in the world cannot be fully understood without first understanding what role ‘money’ plays in all areas of human life. Initially introduced as a means of exchange between consenting parties, money was tied to tangible goods produced by spending physical energy (both resources and labour). In the last 400 years money has turned into an ‘independent’ player that has commodified every aspect of human life, without exception. In other words, from a marginal tool of exchange in social interactions (otherwise governed by centuries-long traditions of moral and behavioural codes) money has became the ultimate end-goal, codifier and master of all relations. Needless to say, in the present system the control over the supply side of money determines everything else. The article by Charles Eisenstein entitled ‘Money and the Crisis of Civilization’ presents a simple review of how this system was created and sheds light on why it won’t be able to survive. To date, the continuation of the system was characterized by cycles of wars and conflicts to prop it up. How many people have paused and considered what is coming next?

Posted in In The News, Economic Issues, Politics | No Comments »

October 9 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

The number of articles around the world that describe people’s reactions to the mounting financial crisis is on the rise. As the number of private and corporate bankruptcies grow so will the pressure on governments and societies affected by the crisis. The situation is of particular concern in the Northern Hemisphere given the approaching winter months and possible disruptions to just in time food deliveries.

Posted in Economic Issues, Food Security, North America | No Comments »

October 9 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

We will once again be posting commentaries and articles of interest. Your comments are welcomed.

Posted in In The News | No Comments »

May 29 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

David Eddie has published a wonderful perspective on the Bernier follies in the Globe and Mail. It’s simply a must read:

“Headline: “He ‘destroyed my life,’ girlfriend says.”

Then she returned the favour.

So many questions remain unanswered in the wake of the Profumo-like scandal that brought down former cabinet minister Maxime “Mad Max” Bernier this week:

What was he doing in Julie Couillard’s house so long after they had broken up? Why did he leave sensitive documents there? Then, when he realized they were missing, why didn’t he ask for them back? Why did she take so long to say she had them?

And why did she have to do it so publicly? “Honey,” so many of the pundits seem to be saying, “why you gotta go and be like that?”

If you ask me, he did it to himself. He set the trap, carefully arranged the sticks and leaves over the pit, then stepped on it and fell in. If ever a man was “hoist by his own petard,” it was Mr. Bernier (with Ms. Couillard the petard).

To me, the whole thing looks like a “booty call” gone horribly wrong.

At first, I was perplexed by the timelines of their relationship. They broke up in January, supposedly, perhaps even December (she decided to end it, she says, “shortly before Christmas”).

Yet they were seen together after that at numerous political functions.” Click here to read more.

Posted in Politics | No Comments »

May 21 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

With moves in Alberta and Saskatchewan to enable the provinces to hold elections for Senate nominees there has been increasing coverage of the Stephen Harper backed plan to reform the Canadian Senate. On the surface, the arguments in favour of Senate reform look good - staging elections will make the Senate more accountable, more democratic and it will prevent political party domination of an outgoing government on the incoming one - but dig a little deeper and the logic behind it becomes ever more elusive.

How, for example, will electing a Senate make it more accountable? The belief that elections directly lead to accountability is a popular one in Canada: if the person who is elected fails to do his or her job constituents can remove that official in the next elections, so the thinking goes. Limited terms and frequent elections are believed to be means to end corruption and increase accountability. Few who are not involved with government realize, however, what the effect of elections is on the ability to govern responsibly. Leaders who live in constant fear of losing their jobs in the next elections have a hard time focusing on long-term strategy. Indeed, if media coverage of politics is any indication the most important concern for any elected representative is, in fact, the next elections be they in 2 months or 2 years. The very reason why senators had been appointed for such lengthy terms was to ensure that at least someone in the government was focused on the issues as opposed to elections. Thus, making the Senate an elected body might not bring about the accountability being touted.

Considering issues of accountability, the role the Senate plays in providing criticism of the government (anygovernment, red, blue, orange or green) is often forgotten. The Senate committees might just be the only bodies putting forth the sort of biting analysis we need. Elected officials certainly don’t want the system to be seen as faulty it could cost them the next elections; the bureaucrats, whose advancement is determined by their perceived efficiency, don’t want much public criticism of the system which they effectively run. The only body that is currently offering any insights into the shortcomings of government is the Senate - just consider the committee reports on Airport Security and Aid in Africa.   

On the assumption that electing the Senate will make it more democratic, the question begs, do elections alone create democracy? In a party-based political system many Canadians already feel that elections aren’t really providing them with much of a say. In an informal survey International Perspectives conducted in October 2007, 52% of respondents said they felt their voices weren’t being heard in a party-based electoral system.  Much of the problem stems from the allegiance elected representatives must pledge to the party to which they belong; to many Canadians it would appear that politicians have more loyalty to the political party that supported their candidacies than to the constituents who voted for them. Although senators have political affiliations the job security afforded by the current terms of appointment ensures that senators who disagree with the party’s approach to an issue can push back - I’m not so sure that elected senators would be so independent. Thus, although the idea of elections conjures notions of democracy, the inherent problems with our current system suggest that an elected Senate might not be any more or less democratic than the existing one.

Canadians are easily (perhaps too easily) excited whenever mention is made at how much money is spent by government. The spending of tax payer dollars is the perfect sound bite to incite public support for change of a system: elected governments love to use the “wanton-waste-of-your-money” messaging against the sometimes uncooperative permanent bureaucracy; opposition parties love to use it against ruling parties; and, now, supporters of Senate reform are using it against the British-modelled institution. I hope that Canadians are able to look past the usual tools for leading the masses in desired directions, thinking past the carrots. It just might be that an institution like the Senate, as bizarre as it may seem to our Liberazi lenses, is the only thing with at least some public interest left.

Posted in Politics | No Comments »

May 13 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Instead of writing again on the Serbian situation, I’ll let Ljubodrag Simonovic speak. The following is a very insightful and thought provoking interview Simonovic gave recently on Serbian television.

Posted in Europe, Politics | No Comments »

May 12 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Time of the Vulture, a comprehensive report by Darryl Robert Schoon, provides some interesting insights into a pending global economic catastrophe. It’s eye-opening and definitely worth checking out.

Posted in Economic Issues | No Comments »

May 8 2008 by The Systemic Analyst.

Newsday has reported that a former detainee held in Guantanamo Bay has carried out a suicide attack in Iraq that killed seven people. This shouldn’t be surprising; the mass detention of so-called enemy combatants, many without trial for years on end, only ensures that the U.S. and its allies will have a growing body of angry Muslim men who now have a real grudge to bear. In fact, “preventative strikes” and prison camps are but a recipe for future terrorism; from a security stand point such an approach never really made much sense.

Abdallah Salih al-Ajmi had reportedly been detained in Guantanamo Bay for 3.5 years where his lawyer said that al-Ajmi once “appeared for a meeting with a broken arm…that al-Ajmi said he had suffered…when guards tried to stop him from praying.” In 2005, al-Ajmi was transferred to Kuwait where he was acquitted in 2006. Settling down, al-Ajmi married and had a child, according to his cousin, Salem al-Ajmi, to whom the suicide attack came as a surprise.

Posted in Security Measures, Middle East | No Comments »