October 18 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

Everywhere one turns there is an expert or an official proclaiming this or that organization is ill-prepared for a pandemic. It’s been over four years since the last outbreak of SARS was contained and the deadly strain of bird flu, H5N1, appeared in South-East Asia. Four years and we still aren’t prepared - what gives?

Last week alone, The Federal Times reported that a pandemic flu could cripple the U.S. government, FEMA reportedly stated that “a pandemic will overwhelm (U.S.) infrastructure” and the World Health Organization claimed that “the European Union is inadequately prepared for a pandemic influenza outbreak.” All of the purportedly ill-prepared showcased in these articles are among the most developed and heavily funded organizations in the world. So, what’s the excuse?

If the article from The Federal Times is any indicator, the inability to prepare for something as potentially catastrophic as a pandemic stems from the usual bureaucratic issues: a lack of funding, priorities and ability to co-ordinate amongst key stake-holders. The question remains, when will such bureaucratic limitations be cast aside in favour of implementing effective plans for a possible pandemic? Probably never.

Security, in the face of a pandemic or other extreme emergency, will only be increased from a bottom-up approach. Although governments and other organizations should play a crucial role in maintaining overall stability, given their already proven inability to create and implement effective plans, such institutions should not be solely relied upon to see wider society through such a catastrophe. If individuals and local groups take action now to implement smaller-scaled plans that consider the needs of the surrounding community, the odds of overcoming a pandemic with as limited a negative impact as possible can increase dramatically.

Society cannot afford to wait for national and international organizations to enact effective pandemic plans. The cost is simply too great. At present, the impact of such organizations as the E.U. and U.S. government not being prepared for a pandemic is considerable to the wider population. With the proper local-level planning, however, effective preparations made now could greatly diminish such risks. The time to act is now, though, another four years might just be too late.

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October 18 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

David Shapiro has published, in The Times, an interesting and informed perspective on the state of financial forecasting. The article is definitely worth a read, providing insight on the current global financial situation as a result of U.S. economic woes as well as the inability of forecasters to accurately predict “what lies ahead.”

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