March 18 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

Here is a collection of reader responses to “claims that warrantless wiretapping helped nab German terror suspects.”

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March 3 2007 by The Systemic Analyst.

Originally published in The Walsingham Papers by The Walsingham Institute.

In 1989, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed that with the end of the Cold War mankind might be witnessing “the end of history as such … the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government”.Fukuyama’s thesis was widely read, discussed and, of course, also criticized at the time. Nevertheless, the principal thesis resonated with many intellectuals and political leaders of the day. While the thesis itself is today perhaps easily dismissed, it is nevertheless illustrative of a common way of thinking about events that is characteristic of our times.

“History is a guide to navigation in perilous times” David McCullough

Many believe that we live in a world in which everything is “new”; and that history is largely irrelevant as any kind of a guide. This way of thinking poses particular challenges for those responsible for national security. History should be, as David McCullough has written, “a guide to navigation in perilous times”. Where this is not the case, policy makers tend to thrash around in a dark vacuum, boxing at shadows and taking life and death decisions with limited knowledge or understanding of the events that are taking place around them.

History provides us with context and parallel experiences to draw on as decisions are made. At times, its relevance is very direct and it provides us with lessons directly applicable to contemporary events. For instance, the lessons learned at the time of the Spanish Flu (some 90 years ago) helped scientists to respond effectively to the Asian Flu of the latter 1950s. Lessons from both of these events are being applied today as planning occurs in relation to new possible pandemic threats.

In another respect, and with particular relevance to today’s security threats, history teaches us about the importance of developing a strong understanding of other peoples and cultures. Without an understanding of the historical, religious, cultural and political attitudes and circumstances which gave rise to 9/11, the motivations and actions of the 9/11 hijackers are incomprehensible. In the absence of an understanding of the history and culture of failed and failing states, reconstruction policies will be severely handicapped and seem unlikely to succeed. While it may often be neglected in favor of technical expertise, historical and cultural knowledge seems an essential prerequisite for any institution that desires to be successful in understanding and responding effectively to security challenges.

Extending the circle even more broadly, the knowledge and appreciation of history also serves to build a culture of depth and understanding among political decision-makers. The ability to recognize strategic and political dangers, and to be cognizant of the limitations of power, is a characteristic of statesmanship. Great statesmanship must be grounded in a knowledge of history. History enables us to better understand both human nature and the human condition. It shows us that while events are never static, and that the future can never be predicted with certainty, obvious pitfalls and mistakes made by others in similar circumstances, can be avoided.

These are lessons that need to be relearned in a world in which history is often neglected. They are lessons which need to be both absorbed within our security institutions and understood and valued by political decision-makers. If they are not, then history cannot serve as a guide to navigation in perilous times. Instead, we are fated, at great peril, to repeat past mistakes.

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